THE Queensland carnival spotlight swings to IPSWICH for CUP DAY on Saturday where the locals will turn out in force ensuring a crowd of more than 20,000 that is likely to be better than the Stradbroke meeting attracted in Brisbane last weekend.
Unfortunately the Ipswich track is no Eagle Farm and hardly up to Saturday standard for a carnival meeting which will no doubt detract from the turnover. Not every runner in the big fields will get their chance of winning.
GINGA DUDE, despite a big weight, looks the one to beat and is a solid early favorite for the Cup. The main concern with him is the awkward draw and how well he is handled by Jason Taylor.
KINNERSLEY, the Gai Waterhouse-trained Lord Mayor’s Cup winner last start in Sydney, is the second elect ahead of the Victorian SHENZHOU STEEDS which will need to stage a form reversal on his latest run to figure in the finish.
The Eye Liner Stakes looks a competitive affair despite the fact that BELTONE opened very short at $2.1 but is out to $2.5 with most agencies keen to lay the favorite at that price.
There has been a good early move for the Kiwi DURHAM TOWN ($21 to $11) while we like GUNDY SON which ran a close second in this race last year and is at $11 early.
MAIN question being asked about the ROSEHILL meeting on Saturday is will the terrible run of Gai Waterhouse-trained favorites continue or which big stable will produce a form reversal winner this weekend. Racing in Sydney has developed into a farce as far as punters are concerned.
FLEMINGTON takes centre stage in Melbourne with a slow 6 track likely to attract the big punters more than the heavy 9 confronting them in Sydney. Ipswich will be dead at worse.
Below is THE FRIDAY FORM-LINE for IPSWICH (Cup Day), FLEMINGTON and ROSEHILL.
IPSWICH – TRACK: DEAD 5.
BEST BACKED EARLY: DURHAM TOWN (R7, $21 to $11) and AMETSIS (R8, $5 to $4.6).
VALUE BETS: BALMONT (R5, $10) and GUNDY SON (R7, $11).
R1: BENCHMARK 90 1666m
FAVORITE SOLID: GREY ASSIGNMENT, $4, a winner at his only start at this track and distance, was looking for further when a closing 8th to RAISE UP at Doomben second-up.
NEXT IN BETTING: TELESTO WARRIOR from $4.2 to $4.4 and RIVER OF SALVATION kept safe at $4.4.
EARLY SPECKING: LAKE GEORGE from $8 to $7.
EARLY MAIL: GREY ASSIGNMENT steps up to suitable trip and ticks all the boxes.
R2: TWO-YEAR-OLD 1100m
WHAT A JOKE: A MAJOR CARNIVAL MEETING AND AS AT 10AM ON FRIDAY THERE WAS NO FIXED ODDS BETTING ON THIS.
EARLY MAIL: FANTISHA looks promising, is 1st-up from an awkward drawn, but flew home to win on debut and should take holding out.
R3: CLASS 6 PLATE 1100m
THIS IS SUPPOSED TO BE A MAJOR CARNIVAL MEETING AND THERE IS NO FIXED ODDS ABETTING AT 10AM FRIDAY.
EARLY MAIL: ROCKER will be a short-priced favorite, gets a better track surface and looks the one to beat.
R4: PROVINCIAL CUP 2140m
OBVIOUSLY THE CORPORATES AND TABS DON’T REGARD THESE RACES OF CARNIVAL STANDARD WHEN THERE ARE NO EARLY FIXED ODDS MARKETS
EARLY MAIL: KEVEJON caught the eye at Doomben last start and although he probably prefers the track a bit wetter should represent each-way value.
R5: LISTED GAI WATERHOUSE CLASSIC, Fillies & Mares 1350m
VICTORIAN FAVORITE: ANDROMACHE, $3.6 to $3.8, has won her three Victorian starts since coming from New Zealand, the latest in good style at Sandown when she led.
BACK TO BEST: GAI’S CHOICE, $4.5, is back to her best with strong finishing wins at her last two starts at Rosehill and looks up to this tougher company.
EARLY SPECKING: SOPHIE’S SPIRIT from $8 to $7; VIPERA GOLD from $21 to $17 and HIDDEN KISSES from $11 to $8.
EARLY MAIL: BALMONT at $10 is a great value chance in this after his closing 7th to RED TRACER in the G2 Dane Ripper on a heavy track at Eagle Farm.
R6: LISTED IPSWICH CUP 2150m
EARLY FAVORITE SOLID: GINGA DUDE has been well backed at $3 early despite his big weight of 60kg with Jason Taylor aboard from an awkward alley. He will find this a lot easier than a last start 3rd to LIGHTS OF HEAVEY in the G2 Eagle Farm Cup.
WATERHOUSE RUNNER: KINNERSLEY, $4.2, returned to his best form with an improved run to win the Listed Lord Mayor’s Cup at Rosehill. The Waterhouse runners can be hard to follow but on his best form this fellow should take beating.
SOLID IN THE MARKET: SHENZHOU STEEDS, $5, won well over the Flemington mile then looked a good thing but went terribly at Caulfield. On that run he has to be taken on trust in this.
EARLY SPECKING: SHUFFLE THE CASH from $11 to $9 and MR LIGHT BLUE from $13 to $11.
EARLY MAIL: GINGA DUDE looks the winner and should handle the big weight if Taylor doesn’t give him a sore back from the awkward alley.
R7: LISTED EYE LINER STAKES 1350m
FAVORITE A SHADE SHORT: BELTONE, $2.1 to $2.5, went terrific in the heavy when 2nd to CELTIC DANCER in the G2 QTC Cup at Eagle Farm and on that run does look the one to beat.
TRIED AT ODDS: RIVA DE LAGO, $10 to $7, was a forgive run in the heavy going in the G2 QTC Cup. Asses his prospects here on a strong Scone win in May.
GO AT ODDS: DURHAM TOWN, $21 to $11, had a wide run but was still closing in the G3 BRC Sprint. An under-rated Kiwi suited on a dryer circuit and the early backing suggests a big improvement in this.
EARLY SPECKING: JET SET LAD from $21 to $17; STEEL ZIP from $21 to $17 and BRIGADOON JACK from $26 to $15.
EARLY MAIL: WE liked the effort of GUNDY SON, $11, from the Robbie Heathcote stable when 4th in the Chief de Beers. He was narrowly beaten in this race last year.
R8: COONEY THREE-YEAR-OLD 1350m
VICTORIAN FAVORITE: AMETSIS, $5 to $4.6, is an emergency for the Eye Liner. She ran an eye-catcher when 4th to RED TRACER in the G2 Dane Ripper on the heavy at Eagle Farm.
NEXT IN BETTING: KELBENJAR from $6 to $5.5 and DAZZLE US and GOLDSLICK, each at $6.
EARLY SPECKING: DIVINE CITY from $10 to $8; VACALLO from $21 to $17; EPIC TERRA from $26 to $21; DORCHESTER from $15 to $13 and BEVICO GIRL from $21 to $17.
EARLY MAIL: DIVINE CITY got clear late when 6th at Doomben to VOLKHERE. She has good 2nd-up form and has been specked early.
FLEMINGTON – Track: SLOW 6.
BEST BACKED EARLY: AERONY (R3, $7 to $4.8) and RUE MAPLE (R5, $2.8 to $2.5).
VALUE BETS: TURNITUP (R4, $3.7) and SPURCIFIC (R8, $5).
RACE 1:
FAVORITE SOLID: FLAMBERGE at $3.5.
NEXT IN MARKET: STARS IN SKY from $5 to $5.5.
EARLY SPECKING: KING KROVANH from $7 to $6.
EARLY MAIL: MOODY stable holds key with FLAMBERGE and KING KROVANH – Nolen to ride KING KORVANH which had no luck on debut at Bendigo when caught wide.
RACE 2:
FAVORITE TRIED WELL EARLY: PLATELET from $3 to $2.7.
BACKED EARLY: REIGNING LASS from $5 to $4.8.
EARLY SPECKING: SONG OF THE BELL from $8 to $7; GRACELAND from $17 to $11 and a go at odds, HANDCUT from $31 to $19.
EARLY MAIL: PLATELET drops back to fillies’ class, likes the straight course and is overdue for another win.
RACE 3:
FAVORITE BACKED EARLY: THE NIGHT’S HOT from as much as $3.5 to $3.2.
NEXT IN BETTING: MANILA JEWEL solid at $3.5 and STORM BURST from $4.6 to $4.8.
GOOD EARLY GO: AERONY from $7 to $4.8.
EARLY MAIL: MANILA JEWEL goes well for apprentice Ben Knobel and has drawn to get the best run.
RACE 4:
FAVORITE SOLID: TURNITUP at $3.7, shorter with some agencies.
BACKED EARLY: HARRY TRIMBOLE from $4.8 to $4.6.
NEXT IN MARKET: MAGNIFIQUE SOLEIL from $4.8 to $5 and MODEL TO NITE at $6.
EARLY MAIL: TURNITUP with seconds at last three starts is overdue and looms as the possible leader in this.
RACE 5:
EARLY GO FOR FAVORITE: RUE MAPLE into $2.5 after as much as $2.8 was bet.
NEXT IN BETTING: SHOCK VALUE from $5 to $5.5 and WEALTHY LAD from $5.5 to $6.5.
EARLY SPECKING: PERTURBO from $8 to $7.
EARLY MAIL: VERDASCO, $8, flopped last start but on his previous run here can test these.
RACE 6:
FAVORITE TRIED EARLY: ERASET from $3.5 to $3.
BACKED EARLY: LORD PYRUS from $7 to $5.5 and LADRAMAHS from $6.5 to $5.5.
EARLY SPECKING: PHILDA from $15 to $12; SANDHILL PRINCE from $17 to $13 and OUR PRIDE AND JOY from $8 to $7.
EARLY MAIL: ERASET has no luck when 4th in the Swan Hill Cup and probably should have won – definitely worth another chance in this.
RACE 7:
FAVORITE BACKED EARLY: DAYITA from $4.6 to $4.2.
NEXT IN MARKET: CLUB COMMAND from $6 to $5.5; MANHATTAN MAID and OLE ROSE both from $8 to $7.5.
EARLY SPECKING: KARACATIS from $13 to $10; ASTRO DAMUS and COMPOSING both from $11 to $8.
EARLY MAIL: ASTRO DAMUS looked good in Listed grade for Kavanagh last start and is crying out for this trip.
RACE 8:
EQUAL FAVORITES: SPURCIFIC from $6 to $5 and INABLITZ from $6.5 to $5 but as short as $4.8 with some agencies.
NEXT IN MARKET: LEGION’S BELLE from $7 to $6 and GOSSIP GIRL from $7 to $6.5.
EARLY SPECKING: RAPIDEMENT from $13 to $11 and VINTAGE TRIUMP from $17 to $13.
EARLY MAIL: SPURCIFIC is ready to peak and goes well down the straight.
ROSEHILL – Track: HEAVY 9.
BEST BACKED EARLY: MECIR (R4, $6 to $4.6) and JOHANNAPINE (R9, $4 to $3.6).
VALUE BETS: EMBARK (R3, $4) and THUMBTACKS (R7, $6).
RACE 1:
FAVORITE SOLID: HAWKSPUR at $3.
BEST BACKED EARLY: CHEZ HARMONY from $3.6 to $3.2.
NEXT IN BETTING: QUEEN’S ELECT from $3.2 to $3.4.
EARLY MAIL: DAVID Payne stable holds key with CHEZ HARMONY and QUEEN’S ELECT – going for CHEZ HARMONY because of her experience over the trp.
RACE 2:
FAVORITE SOLID: EIGHT STRAIGHT at $2.5.
NEXT IN MARKET: MASAHIKO is solid at $3.2 but a well fancied runner from the Gai Waterhouse stable and we all know how well they have been travelling lately.
STABLEMATE OF FAV: SACRED STAR at $6 for Waller and all too often the second string beats the more fancied runner from this stable.
EARLY MAIL: EIGHT STRAIGHT has the best form line with seconds at only two starts. The concern of course is that SACRED STAR from the same stable looks to have good credentials as well, is a winner in the wet and often the second string upset the more fancied runner for Waller.
RACE 3:
EARLY FAVORITE: EMBARK at $4.
NEXT IN BETTING: RUSHING TO WIN at $6 and JESTER’S GIRL at $6.5.
EARLY SPECKING: THINK MINK from $8 to $7.
EARLY MAIL: EMBARK is drawn to get the ‘gun’ run, went terrific 1st-up and looks the one to beat.
RACE 4:
FAVORITE WELL FANCIED: EUCUMBENE at $2.8, into $2.7 with some agencies.
GOOD GO EARLY: MECIR from $6 to $4.6.
NEXT IN BETTING: GAI’S CHOICE is solid at $4.5.
EARLY MAIL: EUCUMBINE looks very promising, Bowman goes on this time and he likes the wet.
RACE 5:
WATERHOUSE FAVORITE: REUBEN PERCIVAL, $1.8 to $2, finished 5th in much tougher Brisbane Cup behind LIGHTS OF HEAVEN last weekend but a favorite for Waterhouse and if he fails they can always blame the quick back-up.
WELL TRIED EARLY: ADROITLY from $3.5 to $3.
EARLY SPECKING: ROI D’JEU from $15 to $13.
EARLY MAIL: NOT prepared to risk the shorts with a Waterhouse favorite in REUBEN PERCIVAL they way they have been going lately and will follow the money trail for the good wet-tracker in ADROITLY.
RACE 6:
FAVORITE TRIED IN OPEN RACE: SHERWOOD from $8 to $7 early.
GOOD EARLY BACKING: HAVANA REY from $10 to $7.5.
EARLY SPECKING: FLYING ZERO from $12 to $10; SKIP TOWN from $11 to $9; ISLE BE READY and FLIGHT OF PEGASUS both $15 to $13.
EARLY MAIL: SINDARIN is unknown on the wet but bred to handle it and has been crying out for this trip at two runs since a spell. The $15 early looks good value.
RACE 7:
FAVORITE OVERDUE: THUMBTACKS solid early at $6 in open betting race.
NEXT IN BETTING: DUNROSSIL from $8 to $7.5.
EARLY SPECKING: ZAKYNTHOS IMPRITZ from $9 to $8 and QUINDELOP from $10 to $9.
EARLY MAIL: THUMBTACKS yet to win away from Warwick Farm but latest run here was sound and is overdue.
RACE 8:
FAVORITE SOLID: DANCING ATTENDANCE at $4.4.
GOOD EARLY MOVE: HARRY TRIMBOLE from $9 to $7.
EARLY SPECKING: THE ZEEBAC from $9 to $8 and PRAISE BE from $10 to $9.
EARLY MAIL: SCOTTISH BORDER has been out of the winning list for some time but looked good first-up, handles the wet and has a great each-way chance at $10.
RACE 9:
FAVORITE TRIED EARLY: JOHANNAPINE from $4 to $3.6.
NEXT IN MARKET: FAMOUS SEAMUS easy from $4.5 to $5.5
EARLY SPECKING: TURF HERO from $9 to $8 and NASH RAMBLER from $21 to $18.
EARLY MAIL: GIRLS GO RACING, $11, has drawn out but gets back and continues to run on. Her latest runs have been good and she handles the wet.